讲座：急所当急：中美关系的紧迫危险——危机不稳定性

主讲嘉宾 (Guest Speaker): Avery Goldstein 

David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations in the Political Science Department, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania.   

主持人 (Moderator): 白永辉教授 (Jean-Marc F. Blanchard),

威尼斯9499登录入口院长助理和教授; 跨国公司研究中心执行主任 (Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of International and Public Affairs Assistant Dean and Professor; Executive Director, Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations)

时 间 (time)：2013年05月29日（10:30 to 12:00, May 29th, Wednesday/周三)上午10点30分至12点钟

地 点 (location)：新建楼3005 (大会议室) Room 3005  

主讲人简介 (Bio): 

AVERY GOLDSTEIN’s research focuses on international relations, security studies, and Chinese politics. He is the author of Rising to the Challenge: China’s Grand Strategy and International Security (Stanford University Press, 2005), Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century: China, Britain, France and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution (Stanford University Press, 2000), and From Bandwagon to Balance of Power Politics: Structural Constraints and Politics in China, 1949-1978 (Stanford University Press, 1991).  Among his other publications are articles in the journals International Security, International Organization, Journal of Strategic Studies, Security Studies, China Quarterly, Asian Survey, Comparative Politics, Orbis, and Polity as well as chapters in a variety of edited volumes. Goldstein is also a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

讲座内容简介 (Abstract)： 

Since the mid-1990s, much has been written about the potentially disruptive impact of China if it emerges as a peer competitor challenging the United States. Not enough attention has been paid, however, to a more immediate danger—that the United States (US) and a weaker China will find themselves locked in a crisis that could escalate to open military conflict.  The long-term prospect for a new great power rivalry ultimately rests on uncertain forecasts about big shifts in national capabilities and debatable claims about the motivations of the two countries. By contrast, the danger of crisis instability involving these two nuclear-armed states is a tangible near-term concern.  An analysis that examines the current state of US-China relations and compares it with key aspects of US-Soviet relations during the Cold War, indicates that a serious Sino-American crisis may be more likely and more dangerous than expected. The capabilities each side possesses, and specific features of the most likely scenarios for US-China crises, suggest reasons to worry that escalation pressures will exist and that they will be highest early in a crisis, compressing the time frame for diplomacy to avert military conflict. 

自20世纪90年代中期以来，关于中国崛起为挑战美国的势均力敌的对手所带来的潜在破坏性影响，已有诸多探讨。然而，对于更加迫在眉睫的一种危险——美国与一个相对较弱的中国陷入可能升级为公开军事冲突的危机之中，则鲜有论述。中美之间新的大国竞赛的长远发展前景，归根结底，取决于对两国国家实力重大转移的不确定性预测，以及对双方动机所作的争议性论断。相比之下，中美这两个核大国之间的危机不稳定性，则是当务之急。通过对当前中美关系现状的考察以及将其与冷战期间美苏关系的各个关键方面进行对比，可以发现，中美爆发严重危机将会比人们预期的更有可能，也更加危险。双方所拥有的国力，以及中美危机最可能被引爆的那些情形所具有的特点，让我们有充分的理由担心：中美危机一旦爆发，便伴随着危机升级的压力，这种压力会迅速达到峰值，从而挤压通过外交斡旋来避免军事冲突的时间。